2014年12月31日星期三

12/31/2014 Daily Trading Routine

Last day of 2014..

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. Three 300+ buying in a row, then slow move in holiday season. Today market shows weakness and seems Santa rally is over, look closely if selling start next year.

[Anticipation List]
BestUSNA, LABL IDXX BIN CDK
Rest: PAYC RGLS BEAT COLM ISSI DHX TREX CEB MATX LOPE CST SWFT MD ALSN XRAY KAR MAR AGN ONNN YHOO

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
PLNR

2014年12月30日星期二

12/30/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. Three 300+ buying in a row, then slow move in holiday season. Today seems the rally start out of gas. We will see if another selling start.

[Anticipation List]
Best: USNA IDXX
Rest: LABL ISSI DHX MATX ACHC LOPE WAT CST HSIC BIN XRAY KAR MAR ABC CI AGN IP ADP YHOO BABA

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
PLNR COUP TREE

2014年12月29日星期一

12/29/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. Three 300+ buying in a row, then slow move in holiday season. 

[Anticipation List]
Best: USNA IDXX
Rest: LABL FNHC ICUI CSTE DHX WAT EV BIN XRAY MAR ABC AGN IP ADP YHOO BABA
B/o from yesterday:
WFM

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
PLNR COUP TREE

2014年12月26日星期五

12/26/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. Three 300+ buying in a row, but monthly 25% move not expanding. As a result, swing does not benefit too much. 

[Anticipation List]
Best: USNA IDXX WFM
Rest: STRP ATNI LABL FNHC ICUI STMP DHX XRAY MAR AGN ADP YHOO CDK

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
PLNR TREE

2014年12月25日星期四

Trading Plan for 2015

As it is close to the end of year. A plan will make me continue improving my skills for next year. Risk Management will be the most important part of the plan. The plan and rules can be modified, but only serious analysis of past tradings, back testing with new knowledge can do it. By place single trading, I should never question or second guess my rules.

[Strategies that I will follow]
(1) Momentum Burst Anticipation for short time swing. (good level)
(2) EP for longer time swing or position trading. (beginner level)
(3) Stockbee Lemonade 401K. (try to kick off this one some time when market correct to extreme, if happens in 2015, then be it. Details in 401K plan)

[Brokers]
(1) Interactive Brokers
      - Have moved all my trading accounts to IB include Roth IRAs, managed by "Friends & Family Account". Mix regular and IRA together makes it more complex to short though.
      - Mobile TWS does not support most group/allocation feature shares will be allocated to each account based on available liquidity.
(2) Fidelity
      - for my 401K account, did not have a choice.

[Tools]
(1) TC2000
      - V12 for daily use, cloud based but only 500 bars
      - V7 for long time analysis, it stores 40 years of daily data
(2) Finviz, Zacks
(3) Should try to develop or found some tool to extract earning and other useful information in one shot. Market Smith is too expensive.

[Risk Management Rules]
(1) Momentum Burst (use % Risk)
      - if primary trend in confirmed bullish: risk 0.5% per trade, each position should be less than 30% of total account to survive from unexpected disaster. Holding time will be 3-5 days.
      - if primary in the range market: use 0.5% to calculate positions. Half the profit target to increase success rate in difficult time, actual stop-loss is also half to keep the rewards/risk ratio. Holding time will be 2-3 days.
      - stay in cash (as can not short in Roth IRA) when primary in confirmed bearish phase.
(2) EP (use fix percentage)
      - 2014, most loss is here risk too much on EP. Before my skills improves, risk should be well managed. 10-20% positions for EP based on the catalyst. Making money is NOT priority now. 
      - focus on growth stories, and/or maybe turn-around/cyclical stocks.
      - focus on EPS + Sales >100% kind of strong catalyst.

[Macro-level Discipline]
For swing trading, I need to take 300-500 tradings in a bullish year to significantly change my account. That is around 2 new position per day by average. But when market stuck at range, and breath is not in favor, I should reduce my exposure by risk management rules and also reduce trading frequency by average 1 new position per day.
    If market is not in confirmed bearish, I need to take opportunities every day. Sometimes there are 10 tradings fail in a row, but 11th turn out to be a winner and will bail out all previous 10 loss. Market timing is based on object breath indicators, not my emotions. Do NOT let recent fail/winning tradings bias my situation awareness and stay in macro level discipline (By doing daily homework, by trading setups seems to be part of my nature now).

2014年12月24日星期三

12/24/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. Three 300+ buying in a row, but monthly 25% move not expanding. As a result, swing does not benefit too much. 

[Anticipation List]
Rest: USNA STRP ATNI LABL FNHC DTSI DHX TREX IDXX MAR AGN WFM CDK

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
Take out the old setups more than 5 days:
MGNX COUP

2014年12月23日星期二

12/23/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. Three 300+ buying in a row, monthly 25% move not expanding, so swing does not benefit too much. 

[Anticipation List]
Rest: USNA STRP ATNI LABL FNHC STMP BJRI DHX TREX IDXX WFM CDK
B/d from yesterday:
MZOR

[Good Swing in past 5 days]
MGNX RCPT WCG INFN UIS SMCI ITG HSY RATE TXT

2014年12月22日星期一

12/22/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. Three 300+ buying in a row, we are close to short term over-bought. Rally not over until selling start.

[Anticipation List]
Rest: USNA ATNI BJRI DHX SIX WFM MZOR
B/d from yesterday:
CBM

[Good Swing in past 5 days]
MGNX RCPT WCG INFN CSGP UIS SMCI RATE

2014年12月21日星期日

12/21/2014 Weekend Routine - EP

Notable Earning in past week.

(1) CUBA
EP of policy change. President Barack Obama pledged to end a diplomatic embargo that lasted for more than 50 years


(2) ASPX
Bio-tech, normally beyond my understanding, chart looks good.

announced positive top-line efficacy and safety results from its Phase 3 registration program evaluating SD-809 for the treatment of chorea associated with Huntington’s disease (HD).


2014年12月20日星期六

12/20/2014 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401K

[401K]
After six 300+ selling, market bounce back strong at short term over-sold level define by 2nd MM breath reading. The catalyst is Fed imply to stay in low rate for extended time. As index only correct less than 5%, not good time to start 401K. Stay 100% cash for now. Current top 3 sort by TI42 (avgc4/avgc42) are (all of them below 100 so far):
    1. FXSIX  (99.96 - last week rank 3)
    2. PWCIX  (99.90 - last week rank 2)
    3. FCNKX  (99.79 - new in top3)
    
[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
12/10/2014 - 12/16/2014 (change chart to dynamic, assuming I do not need to review weekly very old), a lot of selling, but most recovered as market bounce at Wen.


Some stock b/o and move as momentum burst - the big winner (20%-30% in normal market condition)
(1) OREX


Some stocks b/o then side way move - wash trade or scratch trade (30%-40% of the trading)
(1) DF
(2) AEL



Some stocks b/o then fade - may hit or half hit the stop loss (30%-40% of the trading, loss need to be well controlled)
(1) SCSS, 3rd day will trig stop-loss


Some stocks break down - you will not be affected if trade b/o, but will be stop out if real anticipation (most b/d recovered due to the strong bounce)
(1) AMBC
(2) MELI
(3) TE
(4) WAT
(5) ADP
(6) ATR
(7) CEB
(8) MWV
(9) PSA
(10) IDXX


2014年12月19日星期五

12/19/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. In 2 days, market revert from over-sold to over-bought, today another 300 day but with index move slower, next few days rally tend to slow down if continue.

[Anticipation List]
Rest: STRP ATNI STC ARCB CBM OMCL DHX MATX SIX MAR WFM

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
Lot of 8%+ move, but most of them TI65<5, good setups are:
MGNX RCPT IL NLNK INFN QTWO EGHT CSGP UIS SMCI OMG GLW TXT RATE

2014年12月18日星期四

12/18/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, market rally strong with follow through with catalyst of Fed minutes to keep low rate verbally. In 2 days, market revert from over-sold to over-bought, next few days rally tend to slow down if continue.

[Anticipation List]
RestSTRP ATNI ARCB CBM OMCL MATX MAR WFM

[Good Swing Setup in past 5 days]
INFN INGN UIS SMCI BDBD

2014年12月17日星期三

12/17/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After six 300+ down days, today market rally very strong with Fed and from over-sold level. Breath is 500+, almost every stock go up. It is more likely to be trade-able bounce at least in short term, which is working in the past. For swing, act first then review 4-5 days later again about the market direction depends how strong follow through is and continuous buying.

[Anticipation List]
List get short a lot of stock move big today,
ARCB CBM TREX
B/o from yesterday,
BWLD ICUI IQNT ITG KAR LEG (better to choice b/o with volume)

[Good Swing setups in past 5 days]
LJPC OREX BGFV BDBD

2014年12月16日星期二

12/16/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After another V bounce and marginal new high. We are seeing some serious selling now. six 300+ down days in December, all breath indicator turn red and reaching oversold level. Today a bounce from oversold fade, things act different. Let us see if Fed minutes tomorrow will help bounce the market.

[Anticipation List]
Best: N/A
Rest: USNA ICUI BWLD IQNT ITG JKHY LEG KAR
B/d from yesterday:
IDXX

[Good Swing Setup in past 5 days]
NYNY

2014年12月15日星期一

12/15/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After another V bounce and marginal new high. We are seeing some serious selling now. six 300+ down days in December, all breath indicator turn red and reaching oversold level. We will see if it can bounce back with V recover or start real bear market.

[Anticipation List]
Best: N/A
Rest: BWLD IQNT ITG IDXX JKHY LEG KAR AGN
B/o from last Friday:
OREX SCSS

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
ODP PTRY DRNA

2014年12月14日星期日

12/14/2014 Weekend Routine - EP

Notable Earning in past week.

-- N/A for past week -----

Convergence on 401K strategy

As an trader who has strong believe in momentum and market timing. The "target date funds" and "lazy portfolios" are not for me in terms of 401K investing. I have total 31 funds in my fidelity account, 14 out of 31 are stock funds (taking out target date funds and monetary/bond funds) with minimum holding period of 1 month. How to best use those funds to max return is one of my focus in past a few months. After study, there are 2 strategies that makes sense to me:

        1. Stockbee Lemonade for 401K
        2. Pure momentum strategy

    Stockbee has most credit for me to come up the 401K. Basically the Lemonade Strategy is: market timing + rank funds with momentum. The enter signal is: market turn bullish after reach extreme bearish; the exist signal is: market reach extreme bullish. It only invest in certain period of market, basically it is fat-pitch method trying to catch only the major moves of bull trend. During the holding period, hold concentrate positions on top 1 or 2 stock funds ranked by 2 months momentum (TI42), adjust and rotate positions if funds rank drop out of top3 (or 20% if you have more selections than me in 401K funds).
    For pure momentum strategy, it does not use external marketing timing tool. The funds selection (here include both stocks funds and momentary/bond founds) is only based on momentum (e.g. TI42). In the bull market, stock funds will have highest momentum; while in bear market, stock funds will have worst momentum and thus will force you to rotate portfolio to monetary/bond funds. In other words, the market timing is built in the funds selection method. To further improve this method, a momentum threshold can be applied to stock funds. We can use TI42=1.01 as threshold. When any of the stock funds get 2 months momentum above this level, we move position to stock funds. If all stock funds momentum drop below this level, we then rotate to monetary/bound funds.

    What is the performance for these 2 strategies? In past 10+ years, the Lemonade has an average of 34-35% yearly return with no negative years; the pure momentum strategy has an average yearly return slightly above 20% with maximum draw-down of  around 15%.
    Let us look at more details regarding the yearly numbers. For both strategies, most profit comes from the earliest and strongest rally at the beginning of the economic cycle. During 2003-2004, 2009, both strategies had triple digital annualized return which is significant above the average. In the other years, the yearly return will be from somewhat to well below average. Both strategies will avoid big bear phase of economic cycle, which is the key compounding works and the reason that return beat index, beat target date fund or lazy portfolios.
    So why pure momentum strategy under-perform the lemonade strategy? First and main reason is the built-in market timing signal is lagging signal. It will miss the early move of major rally. While market bottom in March of 2009, index rise 25% in just one month. This one month profit may be more than entire year return of other time. For same reason, pure momentum strategy may get out too late when market move to bear phase, cause some damage to portfolios.
    Second reason, after a major rally, market tend to form complex top (whipsaw territory), generate frequent buy and sell signals for pure momentum strategy while lemonade get out early at signal of primary reach extreme (it will miss some profit here). During this topping period, when you get in stock funds, rally end; when you get out stock funds, market bounce back. One exception will be Middle 2013 to early 2014, after market reach primary extreme, with shadow correction, it keep moving higher and higher. During this period, I would expect pure momentum strategy out-perform lemonade. But over long time, exit early is not bad.

    So far as I know, Stockbee Lemonade is the best 401K investment strategy. The most difficult part and also the reason its return is outstanding is the market timing. Previously, I have written an analyst of Stockbee primary indicator. Stockbee really did excellent work on market timing using market breath, there is no need for me to re-invent the wheel.
    To better understanding how the market monitor works. We need to understand the time frame of the trend. There is very long term trend in line with economic cycle, Fed funds  rate and Fed's balance sheet are the key role in this time frame. There is major trend (long term), determined by primary market breath and finally short term trend determined by secondary market breath. The explain is as below:
        a. Monetary Conditions  ----  Very Long term  ----  one business cycles (4-10 years)
        b. Primary Market Breath  ----  Long term  ----  6 months ~ 1 year
        c. Secondary Market Breath ---- Short term ----  1 week ~ 1 month
    For Lemonade 401K strategy, it is a fat-pitch method trying to catch the major trend of the market. The time frame is in line with Primary Market Breath which is the one we should focus on. The major move tend to start with extreme bearish of primary indicator and end when primary indicator reach extreme bullish level. That is how the buy and sell signal generated.
    Shorter move is out of focus as the limitation of holding period in most 401K account, which can start from medium bearish level instead of extreme level. Very long term monetary condition is important though, which provide the context of the primary market breath. When trying to catch the major breath trend, we also want to know where we are in the economic cycle.
    - When monetary condition is in favor (bull phase of business cycle), market tend to correct only 10-15%, that's where you need to start to be bullish and stay focus.
    - 20% plus correction is accompanied by some trouble in macro-economy, and will reflex in interest rate jump and/or Fed monetary policy change. Which tend to be bearish phase of business cycle.
    - After a 20% + correction, we are at the start of new bull phase of business cycles (normally with aggressive interest rate cut and monetary policy change to favor). Market tend to strong rally for next 12-18 months (2003-2004, 2009). It is better to stay full invest during this phase, and big fortune is generated here. Do not worry about 5% kind of pull back. Also, extreme bullish reading can happen at the beginning of 6 or 9 months, this is not sell signal but actually tell you how strong the rally it is in a fresh bull cycle.

    At last, devils are in details. Let us look at the other tactics for lemonade strategy. I am not ready to execute this strategy unless I fully understand every aspect and tactics of it:
    - What happens at the bottom: sequential big selling, primary reach extreme bearish (early/leading signal), 10 day breath ratio < 0.5. Suddenly selling exhausted and buying step in generate a breath flip (bottom happens right now). Within a few days, 10 day breath ration > 2 and finally primary indicator turn green (lagging or confirm signal). Bottom tend to happen in very short time, the opportunity window is only 3-5 days. In order to catch it, we must be stay focus and full prepared.
    - Funds selection is different right at the bottom. None of the stock funds get momentum here. So we should choose the worst performance fund (lowest TI42 reading) or funds with largest beta in history as they tend to rally fastest after market turn. After one month period, if bottom confirmed, then apply regular ranking and rotate position based on momentum high to low.
    - Usually, breath indicator gives very accurate bottom signal. But it is not 100% guarantee, still small chance that we get in early and market has further room going down. After entry, the position has been lock for one month, if we are correct, primary should expanding with market move higher fast; if not the case, it like to be wrong, be prepare to get out and wait for next signal. Breath flip in extreme condition is strong signal, even it is wrong like Nov 2008, it only generate a short term rally instead of start of bull phase. Still rally is longer than one month. So 100% in at bottom signal is justified, the chance of losing money is small, the change of catch a major bull rally is high.
    - When market rally for several months and reach extreme bullish level. This is the exit signal. But it does not mean that we need to close stock funds positions immediately. We should stop rotate the position even it drop below top3, otherwise it will be lock for another one month. And partly move some position to monetary/bound, once market show weakness (big selling days), then close all the stock funds position.
    - Regarding the extreme level in primary indicator reading. Stockbee said when Quarterly 25% move issues goes below 200, it is indicate the extreme condition. This number can be inter-day instead of end of day. Also at March 2009, number goes to 480/2600 right before the turn. Although 480 is more than 200, but 2600 on the down side is really big number. Consider this number as an art instead of science.

2014年12月13日星期六

12/13/2014 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401K

[401K]
There is a lot of selling in past few days. As a results all indicator turn bearish. All the stock funds in my 401K are losing momentum, drop to TI42 = 101 level (TI42<101 is the exit signal). Stay 100% cash for now. Current top 3 sort by TI42 (avgc4/avgc42) are:
    1. JVMRX (101.7 - last week rank 1)
    2. PWCIX  (101.4 - new in top3)
    3. FISIX    (101.0 - new in top3)
    
[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
12/03/2014 - 12/09/2014, week before, some setup works, from this week, setup either b/d or b/o fade which is also screaming bearish in line with market monitor.


Some stock b/o and move as momentum burst - the big winner (20%-30% in normal market condition)
(1) BSFT, around 10% move
(2) SCSC, around 8% move
(3) SAM, high price stock, total move $20


Some stocks b/o then side way move - wash trade or scratch trade (30%-40% of the trading)
(1) ATR
(2) NSP
(3) PLT
(4) SWX
(5) AVX
(6) CBM
(7) WRLD
(8) AKR
(9) RP


Some stocks b/o then fade - may hit or half hit the stop loss (30%-40% of the trading, loss need to be well controlled)
(1) EBIX
(2) BMY
(3) CEB
(4) ETH
(5) HOLX
(6) MGEE


Some stocks break down - you will not be affected if trade b/o, but will be stop out if real anticipation
(1) DV
(2) O, bounce back after b/d
(3) CVG
(4) DST
(5) LABL
(6) LOPE
(7) ROG
(8) SANM


2014年12月12日星期五

12/12/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After another V bounce and marginal new high. Breath is in bearish mode now.Today another down day. Lost of selling in past 10 says and short start to work.High possibility to move lower.

[Anticipation List]
Best: FICO OREX IDXX
Rest: USNA SCSS ITG KAR AGN LEG JKHY KIM BJRI MATX BWLD
B/d from yesterday:
ADP MWV PSA ATR CEB

[Good Swing setups in past 5 days]
DRNA CALA PTRY ANGO ISIS ZAYO ODP

2014年12月11日星期四

12/11/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
Last major bull move is from Nov 2012 to Mar 2014. It is a long rally and market stay in extreme bullish for extended time with shadow correction then recover. From Mar 2014, we are in a range market, especially true for small cap but big cap still make marginal new high. Market never correct too much and can not rally too much, 1 or 2 month move on either side. 
    After another V bounce and marginal new high. Breath is in bearish mode now while index still close to high. We are again see divergence. High possibility to move lower but not reach even short term over-sold yet. 

[Anticipation List]
Best: FICO ITG IDXX MWV PSA WFM ADP
Rest: BWLD CEB MATX SCSS UIS SKYW ATR JKHY LEG KAR CI AGN KIM
B/o from yesterday:
AEL

[Good Swing setup in past 5 days]
ISIS ODP PTRY IXYS CALA ZAYO

2014年12月10日星期三

12/10/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
We have been in the range market since early this year. Each time it has a correction, it is V shape bounce back and make marginal new high. Keep in mind, QE has ended and this rally has been over-extended.
    After another V bounce and marginal new high. We saw 4th 300+ selling today and all indicators turn red. Yesterday strong dip buying is just bull trap. Let us see if it will bounce back from short term oversold or start a bear market I have been wait for long time.

[Anticipation List]
Best: IDXX MWV WFM
Rest: IQNT AEL JKHY KAR PSA RHI DRE AGN KIM ADP
B/o from yesterday, suprised DF b/o nicely in such a selling day
DF
B/d from yesterday:
AMBC MELI TE WAT

[Good Swing in past 5 days]
ESPR CEMP PTRY IXYS CALA


2014年12月9日星期二

12/09/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
We have been in the range market since early this year. Each time it has a correction, it is V shape bounce back and make marginal new high. Keep in mind, QE has ended and this rally has been over-extended.
    After another V bounce and marginal new high. We saw some selling as 300 and 500 days and 10 day ratio turn red yesterday. We then see strong dip buyer today. Seems we are back in range kind of market at least in short term.

[Anticipation List]
Best: IDXX DF PSA WFM
Rest: ICUI STC MELI SCSS AMBC AEL WAT OREX COL MWV KAR TE AGN ADP
Lots of b/o from yesterday:
HOLX AKR CEB ETH MGEE RDI  QLGC RP 

[Good Swing setup in past 5 days]
RSTI XOXO SCSC

2014年12月8日星期一

12/08/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
We have been in the range market since early this year. Each time it has a correction, it is V shape bounce back and make marginal new high. Keep in mind, QE has ended and this rally has been over-extended.
    After another V bounce and marginal new high. We saw some selling as 300 and 500 days. Now another 500 day and 10-day ratio turn red. Are we going to see bear market start with short-term over sold or it will bounce back to range?

[Anticipation List]
Best: IDXX DF HOLX PAYX
Rest: USNA RDI ETH MELI AKR CEB MGEE FDS SCSS RP ADS QLGC OREX COL MWV PSA RHI WFM ADP
B/d from yesterday list:
DST CVG LABL LOPE ROG SANM

[Good Setup in past 5 days]
SCMP PPC OMN AMTD MS

2014年12月7日星期日

12/07/2014 Weekend Routine - EP

Notable Earning in past week.

(1)FRAN
This is a turn around EP, FRAN does not show any fundamental improvement, no positive surprise in recent earning. The CEO change is the catalyst, and market has very high positive expectation on it. The volume is all time high, price action is very good.

Francesca's Holdings Corporation (FRAN) today announced that specialty retailing veteran Michael W. Barnes has been named Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately.
    Mr. Barnes joins francesca's after serving as Chief Executive Officer of Signet Jewelers, Ltd. (SIG) since 2011. He led Signet's $1.46 billion acquisition of Zale Corp., which transformed Signet into the largest specialty jewelry retailer in the U.S., U.K. and Canada with approximately 3,500 retail outlets. Signet's share price almost tripled during Mr. Barnes nearly four-year tenure. 


2014年12月6日星期六

12/06/2014 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401K

[401K]
Another big V shape recovery, which start from lower breath and accelerate. After side-way move when make a marginal new high. There is 300/500 day but now follow through yet. Stay 100% cash for now. I have total 14 stock fund to invest, current top 3 sort by TI42 (avgc4/avgc42) are:
    1. JVMRX (1.04 - last week rank 3)
    2. FXSIX   (1.04 - new in top3)
    3. FOCKX (1.04 - last week rank 2)
    
[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
11/26/2014 - 12/02/2014, Some setups works, lots of b/d on 11/29/14 but most of them bounce back. See details below.


Some stock b/o and move as momentum burst - the big winner (20%-30% in normal market condition)
(1) RRGB, total $5 move with high price stock
(2) FUR, 10% move
(3)RKT, $2.7, very small move


Some stocks b/o then side way move - wash trade or scratch trade (30%-40% of the trading)
(1) INFN


Some stocks b/o then fade - may hit or half hit the stop loss (30%-40% of the trading, loss need to be well controlled)
(1) OREX


Some stocks break down - you will not be affected if trade b/o, but will be stop out if real anticipation
(1) ENV
(2) GCAP
(3) AMTD, b/d then reverse follow a b/o
(4) ODP
(5) PPO
(6) STRA
(7) TREX