显示标签为“Weekend Analysis”的博文。显示所有博文
显示标签为“Weekend Analysis”的博文。显示所有博文

2015年10月18日星期日

10/17/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K

[401K]
Market bounce strongly in past 2 weeks, create 5 days ratio flip. If primary indicator turn green will confirm the rally which is very close but not happened yet. As of funds, most of them go above 101 level. DFEVX is current rank1.
    Now 75% invested, DFEVX 25% and small stock funds LMOIX and DFFVX also 25% each.





[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
09/23/2015 - 09/30/2015, as market re-test 8/24 low. Most leaders are broken. Less stocks still hold up. 

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
IDTI

Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:
SLP

Some stocks break down:
TACT

2015年10月3日星期六

10/03/2015 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401K

[401K]
Market re-test previous low in past week and trying to bounce back. Most leaders are broken. The bounce is not strong enough to flip the breath immediately. At this time still be cautious.
    As of funds, all stock funds still in red zone. Still 75% in cash and 25% in DFEVX.




[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
09/23/2015 - 09/30/2015, as market re-test 8/24 low. Most leaders are broken. Less stocks still hold up. 

Some stock b/o and continue move: 


Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

2015年9月27日星期日

09/26/2015 Weekend Routine- 401K & Swing

[401K]
The bounce from 8/24 selling has reversed. Selling is dominate in past week. Market is still weak. Possibility of testing previous low is high. We will see high buying power for new rally, before that keep the capital is key.
    As of holding still 25% in DFEVX (emerging market) and 75% cash. Currently the emerging market is also disposing. The rally not happen yet.


[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
09/16/2015 - 09/22/2015, No good setups, no good working setups.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
N/A

Some stocks b/o then side way move:
N/A

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
DXLG NCIT LPCN

2015年9月19日星期六

09/19/2015 Weekend Routine 401K & Swing

[401K]
As market bounce in past 3 weeks, all stock funds bounce back, the current rank 1 fund FOCKX is above the 99. When fast indicator flash green then follow by 300+ selling. So I do not have confidence rally will last for one month plus.
    As of holding still 25% in DFEVX (emerging market) and 75% cash.



[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
09/09/2015 - 09/15/2015, although not so many setups, but b/o works pretty good.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
TRVN EXEL NTP ABMD


Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
LHCG GIFI

2015年9月12日星期六

09/12/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
Market was correct 15% with fast selling and then a counter trend bounce. Now it is in a volatile range. Neither break down further or break out to up side. I was bearish in past a few weeks as bounce is weak. But as market does not go down further, also need to be open-minded that volatile range can be resolved by new up trend.
    As of funds, 25% invested into DFEVX (emerging market fund expose heavily to China market, now rank last). It is bet on close to China bottom which has already been in extreme bearish level. Pure anticipation (no breath flip kind of signal yet).


[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
09/02/2015 - 09/08/2015, not so many setups.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
N/A

Some stocks b/o then side way move:


Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:

2015年9月6日星期日

09/05/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swin

[401K]
As from primary indicator, market has been in bearish zone for over 2 months. Fast selling of 8/24 has push breath to extreme level, since then index bounce back and now in a volatile range. There was no breath flip and buying pressure after the 1st first days of bounce is weak. Still in bearish zone with no major turn signal.
    As of funds, all stock funds are in bearish zone with TI42 around or below 95. Current holding still 100%, waiting for new opportunity if bottom signal appear.



[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
08/26/2015 - 09/01/2015, does not have a lot of setups as momentum leaders broken.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
EFOI INGN (move very volatile)


Some stocks b/o then side way move:


Some stocks b/o then fade:


Some stocks break down:
CVT AVOL CCE ABMD

2015年8月29日星期六

08/29/2015 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401

[401K]
There is huge selling on Monday, there is one time all the index fell 8% from open (15% from recent high), primary indicator goes to extreme bearish level. After that it bounce back strong and repair from extreme bearish level. By the end of week, we are out of extreme zone. Since we did not see breath flip, which means the buying is still weak than the selling. More chance of another leg down.
    As of funds, all stock funds goes to bearish level. The rank1 is only 95. Current position is 100% cash. We will see how the market develops in following weeks.


[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
08/19/2015 - 08/25/2015, most setup (momentum candidates) has been sell off. A few has been bounce back, but most has been damaged. That is probably another reason that bounce will fail.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
N/A

Some stocks b/o then side way move:
N/A

Some stocks b/o then fade:
N/A

2015年8月23日星期日

08/22/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
We finally see fast selling as of 500+ and 400+ day on the down side. The primary indicator got to 248/1135 level. Now it is more likely to be a serious correction. The short term is over-sold and tend to bounce, but long term pic is broken and we are not at the extreme bearish level yet, more room of down side is high probability.
    As of funds, all stock funds go below Ti42=101 level and most of them go below the 99 level. This is good for 401K, next big opportunity is coming one market bottom (but not now). 


[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
08/12/2015 - 08/18/2015, not surprise only a few stock still work and need to take profit very quick. On Thursday and Friday, most stock was sold off.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
BYD AHS (take small move, gain give up quick)


Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
NEOG YRCW MDLZ FTK AMED GNC

2015年8月15日星期六

08/15/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
As from Primary indicator, market is in confirmed bearish phase, all breath indicator keep going down. Index still in a range. In the past week, any bounce fade very quick. So remain in cash. Need more correction to be bullish and need more buying pressure to make a bottom.
    As of funds, TRBCX still leading, TI42 is just 101 which can go below if more selling happens next week. 





[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
08/05/2015 - 08/11/2015, basically it is a losing game on momentum leaders. Even market bounce, it tend to happen on beaten down stocks. More and more leaders are broken down.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
LION
Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

2015年8月8日星期六

08/08/2015 Weekend Routine -401K & Swing Summary

[401K]
As from Primary indicator, market is in confirmed bearish phase, all breath indicator keep going down. Index does not correct too much. If we are heading to a serious correction, this is just the start. On the other hand, in past a few years, every selling phase has only one leg, which we need to open the mind to different possibility. As for now, just wait for next decision point.
    As for funds, TRBCX is still rank1, but did not see momentum expanding. In this year, all the leader in fund seems only last for short period or in other words market is in whipsaw. My current holding is 100% cash.




[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
07/29/2015 - 08/04/2015 (only this week). Most b/o is not success, a losing game on long side, that is why we need risk management.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
N/A
Some stocks b/o then side way move:
N/A

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
MRGE NVAX HCA

2015年8月1日星期六

08/01/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K

[401K]
Breath is decline for 3 months, and primary in bearish zone since 7/1. Index does not correct more than 8%, there is room of further down and so far the bounce is not convincing. remain 100% cash.
    As for funds, now the TRBCX (my best big cap fund) takes the leadership and in rank1.

[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
In vacation, no tracking for past week.

2015年7月19日星期日

07/19/2015 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401K

[401K]
Market bounce back this week from range low. It is not surprising as market tend to be like this in past 2 years. NDX is break out to new high strongly (bio tech leading), other index like NYSE and RUT looks like to be run out of gas. It is a divergence, which is a warning.
    As of funds, LIMOIX should be close on 7/20 as planned. TRBCX is correlate well NDX and clearly break out of range. If rally last for more than one moths, TRBCX should be the choice. However, breath and small cap does not confirm the rally so far, and primary indicator still in bearish zone.
    So 50% to TRBCX at most and 50% back to cash will be a reasonable choice. Could expose even less if want to be safe (6/13 is better entry time, but I was locked in LMOIX, currently a little bit too late). Funds rank as below, also update the best funds list with help of TC2000.





[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
07/09/2015 - 07/15/2015. As market bounce back, a lot of b/o is successful.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
RARE HRTX COKE RMTI ELNK RTRX
Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
UVV KBH CYH EVC INGN IXYS


2015年7月11日星期六

07/11/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
Early this week, market keep selling and bounce back on Friday. A lot of damage already happened especially on small stocks. LMOIX is not only drop below top3 but also below the TI42=99 level. Actually all stock funds is lagging. A lot of things can happen before 7/20. Current expectation is close with whatever loss unless bounce strongly next week. 


[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
07/02/2015 - 07/08/2015. See detail below:

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
EGRX RARE HRTX (EGRX HRTX @mystery)


Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
SINA RPTP MXL SIGM ASPS IXYS LGF UVV

2015年7月4日星期六

07/04/2015 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401K

[401K]
What a week. As selling on 6/29, the primary breath goes to red. By weekend, all the MM indicator goes to bearish territory. For the stock funds in 401K, all of them goes below TI42=101 level. Unfortunately my holding for LMOIX enter on 6/18 which can be close on 7/20 at the earliest. Looking back, the 6/18 range b/o signal is not very strong as from breath, may too optimistic to put 100% at that time. Let us see what market does, as for now the entry signal is not valid anymore, prepare to close when 30 days period is over.


[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
06/25/2015 - 07/01/2015, a lot of b/d, but did not follow through. See detail below:

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
SGYP

Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:
BRLI

2015年6月28日星期日

06/28/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
After 6/18, small stocks break out of range, the market has no follow through but lost of gas. There are more selling in past week than buying. Possibility of >1 month rally is questionable now. But on the other side, did not see panic selling. For the funds in 401K, LMOIX and DFFVX still hold up well (which is on top2 for 4 weeks). Current position is 100% LMOIX and earliest close date is 7/20.




[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
06/18/2015 - 06/24/2015, most b/o fade. Even success, the move is very small, only ~1R.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
BRSS CHKE

Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:

2015年6月21日星期日

06/20/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
In past week, on 6/18 more buying get in, as a result, small caps break into all time high. We want to see more follow through, which may or may not happen. For the stock funds, LMOIX and DFFVX took the leadership, which are the best funds since 2009 bull market. Current location is 100% LMOIX, anticipating this rally can last more than one month.



[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
06/11/2015 - 06/17/2015, Focus on TOP 10% momentum stocks and resident stocks, not so many good setup, as breath stay at low level for this period.

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
HRTX HZNP


Some stocks b/o then side way move:


Some stocks b/o then fade:


Some stocks break down:
OLED HUM EMKR YOKU SNOW

2015年6月14日星期日

06/14/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
In past week, weak bounce and run out of gas very quick. Breath looks bad but not turn bearish yet. Monthly 50% move is at high level. More selling still possible. As for now 100% cash in 401K, fund ranks as below:


[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
06/04/2015 - 06/10/2015, I begin to be more selective and focus on TOP 10% momentum stocks and resident stocks,

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
SRPT BSQR HRTX ELNK

Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
SEM RGEN HZNP TCX MFLX

2015年6月6日星期六

06/06/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
In past week, breath remain at low level while 50% monthly reading is above 20. Stock funds ranking is keep dropping. As a result, all stock funds are below 101. Previous leader DFEVX is leading again on the down side which is rank last with T242=96 level. Current holding is 100% cash. If market correct here, will be good for future 401K investing.



[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
05/28/2015 - 06/03/2015, I begin to be more selective and focus on TOP 10% momentum stocks and resident stocks,

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
GIMO RVNC

Some stocks b/o then side way move:

Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
COG SOHU CDK EBIX DYAX

2015年5月30日星期六

05/30/2015 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing Sum

[401K]
In past week, index pull back but still close to new high. Underlying primary breath looks ugly. What's more, the 2nd indicator is now above 20 level which imply more sellings.
    As of funds in 401K, DFEVX is closed and now drop to bottom rank of total 14 funds. My current holding is 100% cash. Also except FIDKX at 101.03, all other funds is below Ti42<101 now. 



[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
05/21/2015 - 05/27/2015, I begin to be more selective and focus on TOP 10% momentum stocks and resident stocks, not so many good one in past week. Also due to market condition:

Some stock b/o and continue move: 
--NA--

Some stocks b/o then side way move:
HILL FBC (HILL is resident stock for longer time, actually 4-5 days side move is OK)


Some stocks b/o then fade:

Some stocks break down:
TZOO WWWW