The way to financial freedom

2014年9月6日星期六

09/06/2014 weekend routine - swing & 401K

[401K]
For long term market timing, we are likely in a complex market top. So 100% cash in current allocation (actually move 100% into monetary mutual fund).

[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
08/27/2014 - 09/22/2014, still no follow though is a big issue to trading swing. See detail below.

Some stock b/o and move as momentum burst - the big winner (20%-30% in normal market condition)
(1)LEAF

Some stocks b/o then side way move - wash trade or scratch trade (30%-40% of the trading)
(1) BIDU

(2)GEO

(3)XPO

Some stocks b/o then fade - may hit or half hit the stop loss (30%-40% of the trading, loss need to be well controlled)
(1) EGOV

(2)TASR

Some stocks break down - you will not be affected if trade b/o, but will be stop out if real anticipation
(1) WX

(2) HMSY

(3) DSW

2014年9月5日星期五

09/05/2014 Daily Trading Routine

(2)NVFY

(3)SGMS, very good setup

(4)SONS

(5)VDSI

2014年9月4日星期四

09/04/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
For big picture, market rally for a long time and get extreme bullish on early March this year. Since then RUT stuck in the range while other index makes marginal new high. Divergence happens on small caps and big caps. Looks we are in a top forming. A 20% kind of correction will likely to happen some time in future and welcome. If that happen I can re-invest in 401K.
For short term, we saw a V shape recovery with low breath and it is running out of gas. We saw in last 2 days, it is gap up then fade. It is a distribution sign. If see 300+ day, we are moving to fast selling phase. So far not yet, but time to protect your money.

[Anticipation List]
ICPT ALJ PRTY AMED CMG DHX TSRA CXW MWA WY JRJC

[Good setups in last 5 days]
Lot of low price stock move, may due to secondary indicator goes to 19 in past few days. Some is like LT.
(1) AGRX

(2) ARTX, low price setup

(3) INTT, low price setup

(4) INVE

(5) NVFY, low price setup

(6)SGMS, b/o today, may have catalyst. For swing, should be sold today.

(7) SONS, low price setup again

2014年9月3日星期三

09/03/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
For big picture, market rally for a long time and get extreme bullish on early March this year. Since then RUT stuck in the range while other index makes marginal new high. Divergence happens on small caps and big caps. Looks we are in a top forming. A 20% kind of correction will likely to happen some time in future and welcome. If that happen I can re-invest in 401K.
For short term, we saw a V shape recovery with low breath. It keeps moving is past 2 weeks. Did not expect it can goes this far. But that what it is. Yesterday, there is a lot of b/o and Secondary indicator goes to 19. Today's action is not good. B/o fails immediate although daily breath does not go very low.

[Anticipation List]
MFRM PBYI AMED CMG DHX BLT TREX SCTY PCYC SLXP LPNT TSRA LPSN CXW MAS WY EMC INTC

[Good setups in last 5 days]
Not so many good setups
(1) INVE

(2) VRNS

2014年9月2日星期二

09/02/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
For big picture, market rally for a long time and get extreme bullish on early March this year. Since then RUT stuck in the range while other index makes marginal new high. Divergence happens on small caps and big caps. Looks we are in a top forming. A 20% kind of correction will likely to happen some time in future and welcome. If that happen I can re-invest in 401K.
For short term, we saw a V shape recovery with low breath. It keeps moving is past 2 weeks. Did not expect it can goes this far. But that what it is. Today there is a lot of b/o, second indicator is close to extreme and LT start showing up. While a lot of setups may work instead of no follow through, time to be cautious.
BIDU,EGOV,TASR,XPO,IMS in my last Friday List b/o strongly today.

[Anticipation List]
This list removed buyout, shares buy-back kind of recent catalyst
MFRM AMED LEAF CMG RDNT DHX BLT SLXP LPNT TSRA LPSN GEO DSW CXW OTEX MWA RCL MAS WY EMC WX

[Good Swing setups in past 5 days]
Go though the list in TC2000: c/c4>1.08 and v>100000
Or go through the list in finviz: Weekly 10%+ move with voloume>100K
(1) AGRX

(2) BIOF

(3) DATA

(4) INVE, very good setup

(5) MNTX, bottom fish

(6) VRNS, bottom fish

2014年9月1日星期一

Stockbee Primary Indicator for Market Timing 2007-2014

Stockbee Market Monitor is a Breath Based indicator, it has both long term and short team breath number while eliminate the noise by count the significant move only. Below is the SP-500 weekly chart combine with Primary indicator:
- Green on indicator: Number of stocks + 25% in one Quarter > Number of stocks - 25% in one Quarter (Primary confirm bullish)
- Red on indicator: Number of stocks + 25% in one Quarter < Number of stocks - 25% in one Quarter (Primary confirm bearish)
- Yellow Arrow on Chart: Extreme bullish (When Number of stock +25% <200)
- Red Arrow on Chart: Extreme bearish (When Number of stock -25%<200)
- Green Circle on Chart: (Breath Flip happens: strong market turn signal at bottom, Green Number is the Primary reading right before flip, some flip may happen inter-day with this number even lower)

Analysis

(1) Basically Green indicator catches the bull move while Red indicator catches the bear move. Primary indicator itself is a lag indicator, you will miss the big fortune in early market turn and give back profit during market top.

(2) In bull market, primary like to be continuous green; in bear market, it is NOT continuous red but makes marginal green (you do not see extreme bullish in these short green period)

(3) In bear market or big correction (2008, 2010 summer, 2011 fall), primary indicator can go to extreme bearish. At or close to extreme bearish phase, breath flip provide very good and strong bottom signal.

(4) Besides 2013, Major bull market often end with extreme bullish primary readings.

(5) Top signal is not as good as bottom signal. After primary goes to extreme bullish:

- it can go to bear market or major correction (2008, 2010 summer, 2011 faill, you see breath flip)

- it can go to minor correction (2012 Jul, Aug or 2012 Nov, you did not see breath flip)

- it can just side way move or pull back (with primary still green) then continue (2013)

09/01/2014 Weekend Routine - EP

[Notable Earning or Good EP in past week from EP scan]
(1) DGLY
It is NOT EP kind of Catalyst, it is like LT or something beyond my understanding, just post here for its chart looks interesting. (as a note: ISNS is surged due to same news, it is more like LT kind of things, not real EP)
On 7/10/2014, DGLY was surging 156.6% to $8.16 Thursday after receiving a patent for its VuLink connectivity system.
On 8/20/2014, DGLY announced that the number of inquiries that it has received from law enforcement agencies interested in its FirstVU HD Officer-Worn Video System has increased dramatically since the national media began covering the civil unrest in Ferguson, Missouri.

(2) VEEV

Earning EP (Float 38M), both Rev and EPS goes to new high. Not triple digit kind of EP. If works, will have 50% potential, target to $37.

Total revenues for the second quarter were $75.7 million, up from $49.6 million one year ago, an increase of 53% year-over-year. Subscription services revenues for the second quarter were $56.6 million, up from $34.1 million one year ago, an increase of 66% year-over-year.

Second quarter operating income was $16.8 million, compared to $9.8 million one year ago, an increase of 71% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating income for the second quarter was $20.8 million, compared to $11.1 million one year ago, an increase of 88% year-over-year.

Second quarter net income was $9.6 million, compared to $6.0 million one year ago, an increase of 60% year-over-year. Non-GAAP net income for the second quarter was $12.4 million, compared to $7.3 million one year ago, an increase of 69% year-over-year.