2014年10月31日星期五

10/31/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
We have seen another V shape recovery with Primary marginal bearish. For long time, QE ended this months, which is negative factor in monetary factor (25% weight), sentiment/valuation of entire market is high which is bearish also (25% weight).
    For short term, as we see 300/500 day and now another 300 day. It should be bullish in short time on breath as for now (50% weight), over all it is neural in short time (100% weight). After long time, setups start to work. Let us play swing, and be prepared if breath change. Party is not over until signal shows up.

[Anticipation List]
ASPX MGPI FIZZ IBKR SIX HSA SBH
b/o from yesterday Anticipation List
ALDR

[Good setups in past 5 days]
(1) KWR
(2) NYNY, good setup, also cached in anticipation list

(3) OMN
(4) POWR
(5) REI
(6) SOHU, bottom fish



2014年10月30日星期四

10/30/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
We have seen another V shape recovery with Primary marginal bearish. For long time, QE ended this months, which is negative factor in monetary factor (25% weight), sentiment/valuation of entire market is high which is bearish also (25% weight).
    For short term, as we see 300 day and now 500 day with 10 day breath ratio > 2. It should be bullish in short time on breath as for now (50% weight), over all it is neural in short time (100% weight), today primary turn green confirms the bullish on breath side.
    Let us play swing, and be prepared if breath change. Party is not over until signal shows up.

[Anticipation List]
TREE ALDR ASPX FIZZ SIX HAS SBH
B/o from yesterday Anticipation List
HSTM VSI WDFC

[Good Swing Setups in last 5 days]
(1) AVNR, in the anticipation list also
(2) KWR
(3) NYNY, also in anticipation list before
(4) VICR


2014年10月29日星期三

10/29/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
We have seen another V shape recovery with Primary marginal bearish. For long time, QE ended this months, which is negative factor in monetary factor (25% weight), sentiment/valuation of entire market is high which is bearish also (25% weight).
    For short term, as we see 300 day and now 500 day with 10 day breath ratio > 2. It should be bullish in short time on breath as for now (50% weight), over all it is neural in short time, today Fed meeting does not trigger selling, market may take a rest then may move marginal high.
    Let us play swing, and be prepared when breath change. When it happens along with already bearish monetary/sentiment, may go to serious correction.

[Anticipation List]
TREE ASPX FIZZ WDFC HSTM TTPH VSI HAS JRJC
B/o from yesterday Anticipation List
ANAC CNCE INSY

[Good Swing setup in past 5 days]
Go though the list in TC2000: c/c4>1.08 and v>30000
Or go through the list in finviz: Weekly 10%+ move with voloume>50K
(1) CPLA, very good setup
(2) DHT, low price setup
(3) NAT

(4) NYNY, in my previous anticipation list
(5) TAX
(6) XLRN


2014年10月28日星期二

10/28/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
For longer term, primary breath is in confirmed bearish phase. QE ending may lead to serious correction. (it is rare to have >15% correction in normal economic environment, but each QE ending lead to 20% correction which need to be in consideration).
    For short term, after initial selling, we saw a bounce accelerate from low daily breath. We see 300 day and now 500 day with 10 day breath ratio > 2. Primary is very close to turn bullish, do not fight the tape, I should change the word bounce to rally now.

[Anticipation List]
TREE ASPX CNCE ANAC HAS AVNR INSY
A lot of b/o from yesterday Anticipation List
ARC BREW FARM HAIN HAWK LEAF NYNY ULTA

[Good Swing setup in past 5 days]
(1) AAC
(2) LTM
(3) XLRN

2014年10月27日星期一

10/27/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
For longer term, primary breath is in confirmed bearish phase. QE ending may lead to serious correction. (it is rare to have >15% correction in normal economic environment, but each QE ending lead to 20% correction which need to be in consideration).
    For short term, after initial selling, we saw a bounce accelerate from low daily breath. If bounce continue, more good continuous setups will show up. Today negative breath with minor on index drop. Does the bounce run out of gas or just have a rest?

[Anticipation List]
TREE FARM SVVC HAWK BREW CNCE VTNR SAFT NYNY LEAF ANAC ARC HAIN ULTA AVNR

[Good Setups in last 5 days]
Go though the list in TC2000: c/c4>1.08 and v>30000
Or go through the list in finviz: Weekly 10%+ move with voloume>50K
Continuous setup start showing up,
(1) AMAG
(2) LTM
(3) TGTX, good setup, captured by anticipation list
(4) XLRN


2014年10月26日星期日

10/26/2014 Weekend Routine - EP

Notable Earning in past week.

(1) RGLS
BioTech Play, normally beyond my understanding. The chart is beautiful and Volume/Price surge is huge. It has 11.3M float, EP day volume >20M

Hepatitis C is an insanely crowded and competitive field, but investors see in the early Regulus RG-101 data the potential for a new way to cure the liver disease with a single or even a few simple and easily tolerate, under-the-skin injections, instead of four, eight or 12 weeks of daily pills.


(2) IRBT
It is 20/100 kind of earning, may have 25%-50% potential. Float is 28M, target $45.

Revenue for the third quarter of 2014 was $143.5 million, compared with $124.5 million for the same quarter one year ago.
Net income in the third quarter of 2014 was $14.6 million, compared with $7.8 million in the third quarter of 2013.
Quarterly earnings per share were $0.48 for the third quarter of 2014, compared with $0.26 in the third quarter last year.



2014年10月25日星期六

10/25/2014 Weekend Routine - Swing & 401K

[401K]
After selling, the market bounce back from last week and accelerate this week. So far the market does not give me the chance to buy extreme weakness. If correction is over, than wait for next buy opportunity. There will always be a chance.

[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
10/15/2014 - 10/21/2014, since bounce continues, swing setups start to work, although not so many continuous setup, but they all work as detail below.

Some stock b/o and move as momentum burst - the big winner (20%-30% in normal market condition)
(1)FXCM, if sell at 3rd, still make money
(2) TREE
(3) MFRM
(4) MIK

Some stocks b/o then side way move - wash trade or scratch trade (30%-40% of the trading)

--- N/A ---

Some stocks b/o then fade - may hit or half hit the stop loss (30%-40% of the trading, loss need to be well controlled)
--- N/A ---

Some stocks break down - you will not be affected if trade b/o, but will be stop out if real anticipation
--- N/A ---

2014年10月24日星期五

10/24/2014 Daily Trading routine

[General Market]
For longer term, primary breath is in confirmed bearish phase. QE ending may lead to serious correction. (it is rare to have >15% correction in normal economic environment, but each QE ending lead to 20% correction which need to be in consideration).
    For short term, after initial selling, we saw a bounce accelerate from low daily breath. If bounce continue, more good continuous setups will show up. Let us if bounce continues next week and if it is possible to get primary green to be more bullish.

[Anticipation List]
FARM BREW AMWD VTNR SAFT GPX ANAC ARC HAIN AVNR
B/o from yesterday's Anticipation List
TGTX

[Good Swing in last 5 days]
(1) AAC
(2) ALIM, low price setup
(3) XENT
(4) XLRN, best setup

2014年10月23日星期四

10/23/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
For longer term, primary breath is in confirmed bearish phase. QE ending may lead to serious correction. (it is rare to have >15% correction in normal economic environment, but each QE ending lead to 20% correction which need to be in consideration).
    For short term, after initial selling, we saw a bounce accelerate from low daily breath. If bounce continue, more good continuous setups will show up. And time to play swing. But for longer time holding like 401K, need to be cautious, be patient wait for correct buy signal.

[Anticipation List]
TREE BREW VTNR SAFT TGTX
B/d from yesterday list (very bad behavior for earning beat)
JAKK

[Good Swing setups in past 5 days]
(1) AGIO
(2) AMAG
(3) XENT
(4) WTW

2014年10月22日星期三

10/22/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
After forming complex top. The selling start from early September and primary breath confirm bearish in middle September. After 300+ selling, there is bounce.
    The bounce start with low breath then accelerate, we see 1st 300+ day on up side yesterday. But today's action is weak, is the bounce over or take a rest?

[Anticipation List]
BREW JAKK TGTX
B/o from yesterday Anticipation List
IBP

[Good Swing Setups in past 5 days]
Go though the list in TC2000: c/c4>1.08 and v>30000
Or go through the list in finviz: Weekly 10%+ move with voloume>50K
Still V bonce dominate the 90% move in past 5 days, but number of 10% move reduce by half compare to yesterday list due to the action today.
(1) OESX

2014年10月21日星期二

10/21/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
After forming complex top. The selling start from early September and primary breath confirm bearish in middle September. After 300+ selling, there is bounce.
    The bounce start with low breath then accelerate, we see 1st 300+ day on up side today. All index bounce 5%+ which means it is stronger bounce and will last longer, possible another 3-5 days. The issue is no good setup, everything shows V bounce in last few days.

[Anticipation List]
IBP HAWK BREW EXAS

[Good Swing setups in last 5 days]
90% of all setups are V bounce, move start same time as general market.

2014年10月20日星期一

10/20/2014 Daily Trading Routine

[General Market]
After forming complex top. The selling start from early September and primary breath confirm bearish in middle September. As QE3 ended and we saw back to back 300+ selling, it has very high probability to be a serious correction.
    For short term, there is a bounce after selling. Today the bounce continue on 5th day with lower and lower breath. Will it set another leg of selling while more and more people think they V shape recovery is back. Let us see.

[Anticipation List]
EXAS IBP

[Good Swing Setup in past 5 days]
Go though the list in TC2000: c/c4>1.08 and v>30000
Or go through the list in finviz: Weekly 10%+ move with voloume>50K
It is dominate by over-sold bounce kind of setups
(1) OESX
(2) STRA


2014年10月18日星期六

10/18/2014 Weekend Routine - 401K & Swing

[401K]
We saw a bounce this week. But it is not convincing. High probability is that it will set 2nd leg of selling. 100% in cash now and wait for low risk entry. Breath flip will flash the buy signal and primary green is the final arbiter to confirm buy signal is right or wrong. Still stay focus and patience is the key.

[Anticipation List Event- from last Wen to this Tues]
10/08/2014 - 10/14/2014, since there is bounce late last week, so some setup working:

Some stock b/o and move as momentum burst - the big winner (20%-30% in normal market condition)
(1) SCLN
(2) STRA


Some stocks b/o then side way move - wash trade or scratch trade (30%-40% of the trading)
(1) LEAF
(2) AERI


Some stocks b/o then fade - may hit or half hit the stop loss (30%-40% of the trading, loss need to be well controlled)
(1) HE


Some stocks break down - you will not be affected if trade b/o, but will be stop out if real anticipation
(1) SBSI
(2) VPRT, b/d then bounce with general market